The question is not whether the Edmonton Oilers will get a top young forward prospect in the 2019 draft, it’s which one will fall to them. Will they luck out and get a player they greatly covet, as happened last year when Evan Bouchard fell to the Oilers in the 10th overall spot?Will one or two teams draft for need in 2019, as a few teams did last season, meaning a player the Oilers rate near the top of the draft will fall to them in the 8th overall spot?It’s certainly possible. Every year we see teams draft for need. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t, but we almost always see it, especially in recent years when teams have been in the hunt for a big two-way centre.For example, in the 2016 draft Columbus took big centre Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall, even as almost all major scouting services had Jesse Puljujarvi rated higher. In 2018, both Montreal reached at third overall and Arizona at fifth overall to grab big two-way centres in Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton, which opened the door for Bouchard to land in Edmonton.Right now the expectation for the 2019 draft is that nine forwards and one defenceman will go in the Top 10 in the draft, with two forwards, Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakka going one and two overall and Bowen Byram being the one d-man rated highly. Next comes the Super Seven, seven top forwards that almost all the various scouting services rank next best in order.My bet is that if Bowen Byram, the hot shot d-man, fell to eighth that Edmonton would take him, given their need for puck moving from the back-end, and even though the team has a number of fine prospects in Bouchard, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Ethan Bear, Dmitri Samorukov and Joel Persson. Byram is reportedly that good. He’s going to go high and it will be no reach for the team that grabs him high.But will another team be in such need of a d-man that they will grab such a player ahead of one of the Super Seven forwards? For example, will a highly-rated Swede like Victor Soderstrom or Philip Broberg go higher than expected?Who might reach?Which team is most likely to reach in this draft? Well, the most likely players to move up, based on what we’ve seen in recent years, are the two big centres in the draft, Dylan Cozens and Kirby Dach. Any team in need of help at centre will be sorely tempted to grab one of those two, I’m betting.Is there also a team that might reach to grab a d-man? Hmmm. There are three candidates to do so, Chicago, Detroit and Los Angeles. One of those teams will end up with Byram, but if Chicago grabs Byram that will leave Detroit and Los Angeles possibly hungering after a d-man and possibly open to drafting a Soderstrom or a Broberg. Stranger things have happened.Chicago has almost no prospect depth at forward, while they’re stacked with prospects on defence, players like Adam Boqvist, Nicola Beaudin, Lucas Carlsson and Ian Mitchell. So they’re not desperate for a puck-moving d-man like Byram. At the same time they’ve also got some solid-to-fantastic forwards at the NHL level in Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, Brandon Saad and Artem Anisimov.The Blackhawks are the wild card in the draft, but unless they see Byram as considerably better than Cozens or Dach, I see them going with the big centre option. They might also be greatly tempted by Alex Turcotte, an American centre moving up most of these rankings fast who played midget hockey in Chicago.As for Los Angeles, they need help everywhere. In recent years, they’ve spent top picks on forward prospects, so they might well be tempted by a d-man. If Chicago doesn’t take Byram, I can’t see Los Angeles passing on him.Detroit has a number of good young forwards on the team, so if a big centre is there maybe they will bite on a d-man, but a lot of that depends on what they think of Mike Rasmussen, the big centre they drafted ninth overall in 2017. He had 18 points in 62 games for Detroit this year, making the team right out of major junior.Mock Draft 2019Based on team needs and what the experts are saying, and based on the proclivity of teams in recent years to reach to draft big centres like Cozens and Dach, here’s how I predict the first round will go:New Jersey. Hughes. New York Rangers. Kakka. Chicago Blackhawks. Turcotte. Colorado Avalanche. Cozens. Los Angeles Kings. Byram. Detroit Red Wings. Dach. Buffalo Sabres. Zegras. Edmonton Oilers. Krebs or Boldy or Podkolzin. Or Cole Caulfield or Alex Newhook. In the end, the forwards look too enticing for any team ahead of the Oilers to reach for a d-man. That doesn’t mean that things won’t changed, based on play at the U-18 tournament. A forward like tiny Cole Caulfield of the USA, a DeBrincat-sized player, could certainly sneak up into the top group. But right now I see Edmonton getting the pick of three top young forwards, Trevor Zegras, Peyton Krebs or Matthew Boldy.Krebs, who is from Okotoks, leads Team Canada as their second top scorer and team captain at the U-18 tournament by the way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oilers go for him.Make sense?The interesting question for the Oilers will be what they do if Vasili Podkolzin drops to them. He has just one assist for Russia at the U-18 Worlds, but I haven’t watched those games and have no report on his overall play. Edmonton has had little luck in recent years with Euro forwards, drafting Magnus Paajarvi 10th overall in 2010, Nail Yakupov first overall in 2012 and Jesse Puljujarvi overall in 2016. Of course, Puljujarvi could still work out, and just because one or two or three Euros didn’t work out here, it doesn’t mean another one won’t. Leon Draisaitl of Germany has certainly hit the mark.P.S. The top scorers at the U-18 Worlds in Sweden is packed with top prospects, including Caulfield and Alex Newhook of Canada, who are ranked in the 10 to 20 range by most scouting services. I wonder if that will now change.